Yesterday, Prime Minister Theresa May set out her 12 point plan outlining Britain’s route out of the European Union.
You might have been fooled into thinking that this speech was a move by the PM to reassure us – the voters – about what’s coming down the pipeline. That really wasn’t the case though. Her speech wasn’t even really directed at businesses who may be worried about their future prospects in an unsure economic environment, or to EU citizens living and working here worried about whether they’ll be sent packing. No. This speech was for the others. It was for dissenting politicians and EU leaders alike and the punch line was clear; “Don’t mess with me.”
Our PM came out fists flying, telling her counterparts on the continent that Britain was not prepared to be held hostage over our removal from the single market (we’ll do the hostage taking thank you very much), and she was at pains to demonstrate that her government was in control.
Nothing says you’re in control like a list. So May had one, and hers featured the twelve key points that her government will focus on as they untangle themselves from Europe.
The list is actually a bit pointless. Point one, provide certainty about the process of leaving the EU, doesn’t really do what it says on the tin, and the fact that someone’s had to write that down in a list, like a reminder, might be a bit troubling. But the plan also includes a commitment to making our own laws, and regaining control of the number of people who come to Britain from Europe – and that means leaving the single market.
There were two points the PM said she could not accept with the current customs union. Firstly, that it imposes common external tariffs on goods from other countries outside the customs union, which Mrs May says will hinder our efforts to broker new free trade deals with other countries, and the second is common commercial policy, which stipulates that the EU sets external tariffs and negotiates trade deals, rather than individual member states.
These are of course both true, but to dismiss them is to miss the point.
The EU is our biggest trading partner and will remain so after Brexit – so it might actually be more beneficial for us to have a free trade deal with them than we have with other countries (by removing ourselves from the Customs Union we also remove our right to free trade with the EU).
And secondly, the EU has already negotiated dozens of trade deals with countries from around the world that we benefit from as a member. Those deals took decades to complete. But now we’re set to leave it all behind to negotiate them all over again, with Liam Fox in charge…
But the audience for her points about international trade was not in the room. They were in Brussels. The PM was robust in delivering her words: she did not want to “undermine” the EU but she warned that a “punitive” reaction to Brexit would bring “calamitous self-harm for the countries of Europe and it would not be the act of a friend”. She went further “I am clear” she said “that no deal for Britain is better than a bad deal for Britain.”
Our PM is not messing around here. She is threatening the EU, of that we should all be sure. She’s effectively saying ‘if you don’t give us what we want, there will be consequences.’ The point that’s missing of course is that those consequences may actually affect us more than them, but the PM is prepared to take the gamble that they’ll blink first.
The rest of the 12 point plan was geared towards reassuring those UK politicians that could turn out to be thorns in her side. She set out several priorities like the need to find a practical solution that allows the maintenance of the Common Travel Area with the Republic of Ireland; as well as a commitment to work with our European allies to fight crime and terror, and the indication that we’ll have a phased leaving of the EU. Mrs May wants us to know that she’s got everything under control, that her government is taking a measured approach to this and that she will not be throwing the baby out with the bath water. Whether she’s telling the truth remains to be seen.
So in the end yesterday’s speech doesn’t really mean a thing to me. Billed as the PM’s plan for Brexit, it really only told us what we already knew. What we don’t know however, is what the end result will be like. We don’t know how the pound in our pocket will end up or how long we’ll have to queue at an airport. We don’t know the import tax we’ll have to pay on a Volkswagen or how easy it will be to get a job in Paris if we want one. In short, the only thing we know is that we still don’t know a thing. And that’s got me pretty nervous.
Politics on the side 